Living Room GM

About 1 month ago, the Chicago Cubs relieved former GM Jim Hendry of his duties.  Hendry was promoted to the position in July of 2002.  The Cubs had plenty of decent seasons under Hendry, including 3 playoff appearences in '03, '07, and '08, and a trip to the NCLS in '03.

After the '03 season when the Cubs lost to the Marlins in game 7 of the NLCS, the Cubs would not reach the playoffs for 3 straight years.  In 2006, the Cubs suffered their worst record since 2000, finishing with a 66-96 record.

After the '06 season, the Cubs fired manager Dusty Baker after 4 years with the team, and hired Lou Piniella as their next manager.  The Cubs would win the NL Central the next 2 years, but would be swept in the NLDS both years.

The Cubs attempted to build their team around SP Carlos Zambrano after SP Mark Prior suffered multiple season ending injuries and being touted as one of the top prospects for their organization.

The Cubs mostly decided to fire Hendry for reasons other than his record.  Hendry did take the Cubs to more playoff appearances in his 9 years as GM than did the previous GM Ed Lynch who took the Cubs to the playoffs once in his 7 years as GM.

What cost Hendry his job were the contracts he signed.  In '09, Hendry increased the Cubs payroll by $20 million from the year before to bring the Cubs opening day payroll to $134 million.  In their 2 playoff years prior to the '09 season, the Cubs payroll was $118 million in '08, and $99 million in '07.

The Cubs are stuck with some pretty bad contracts that were signed by Hendry.  Hendry signed Alfonso Soriano to an 8 year deal back in '07, Carlos Zambrano to a 5 year deal in '08, Aramis Ramirez to a 5 year deal in '07, and Jeff Samardzija to a 5 year deal in '07 as well.  The one thing all these deals have in common are that all deals include full no-trade clauses.

These contracts have come back to hurt the Cubs in some of the worst ways possible.  Zambrano has been suspended twice in the past 2 years for actions detrimental to the team.  Soriano has come a long way since his 40-40 season with the Washington Nationals which earned him that 8 year/$136 million deal in 2007.

Overall, Hendry's signings weren't terrible in terms of the players he brought on.  What was terrible about the deals are the length.  If Hendry had signed Soriano to a 5 year deal instead of an 8 year deal, Soriano would be a free agent at the end of this season and the Cubs would have $18 million off their books.  Instead, Soriano is under contract until 2014, is owed a total of $54 million, and can't be traded.  Soriano is well past his prime and his past 2 seasons have been the worst of his career.

Luckily for the Cubs, they will have the offseason to find a new GM, and have a club option on Aramis Ramirez which will more than likely be declined since it's worth $14 million ($16 million option + $2 million buyout).

Zambrano is under contract for one more season, and has a vesting option for 2013 which likely won't vest unless he can pull himself together and get back to the pitcher he once was.

The Cubs will look for a new GM this offseason and Livingroom GM will have analysis of all the candidates.

Baseball is a very unique sport in that there are so many statistics that are taken into an account when valuing a specific player.  Your stats tell a story.  They tell the fans what to expect, they tell a GM how much they should be paid, and they tell voters whether or not they are their leagues MVP.

Some of the most popular statistics we use today to value a ballplayer's skill are Batting Average for a hitter, and ERA for a pitcher.  Those two stats may also be the least telling to a players ability.  Batting average and ERA both have a large dependency on luck.

In terms of hitters, the stats that exist are very telling of a players ability.  My favorite stat in particular is OBP or On Base Percentage.  The way to think about OPB is to think about the object of the game.  In baseball, there are 3 outs in an inning and the goal is to keep an inning alive.

Essentially, when a batter steps to the plate, he has one goal in mind and that goal is to not make an out.  As we all know, there are more ways to not make an out than to simply get a hit.  A batter can also walk, or get hit by a pitch.  So if there are multiple ways to get on base, why do we use a stat that only displays one of those ways?

OBP is the best indicator of a players ability to not make an out.  Essentially, OPB is the probability that that specific player will not make one of your teams 3 outs.

Now lets move on to pitching.

The stat we use the most to value a pitcher is ERA.  ERA, or Earned Run Average, is a statistic to show how many runs a pitcher gives up every 9 innings.  This stat is calculated by earned runs divided by innings pitched, and then multiplied by 9.

We also use WHIP to indicate ability.  WHIP, or Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched, is simply how many runners will be on base per inning.  WHIP is very similar to OBP in that both indicate the likeliness that an out will be made, and the teams will be 1/3 closer to switching sides.

But lets move away from stats that already exist.  The issue I wanted to point out today is the ability to value a pitcher.  I don't mean a starting pitcher, I simply mean a reliever.

A reliever can pitch in 2 scenario.  A reliever can either start an inning, or can come in while an inning is in progress.  For this argument, I want to concentrate on the 2nd scenario.

I would like you to picture this, it's currently the bottom of the 6th inning, there's one out and the starting pitcher just walked the bases loaded.  The score is 6-3 in favor of the road team when the manager steps out from the dugout, raises his right hand signaling for his righty reliever.  The reliever comes into the game, records the next two out, but not before allowing a bases clearing double and strands the runner on 2nd.  The score is now 6-6.

When you look at the box score the next morning, all 3 runs have been charged to the starting pitcher and the reliever walks away with a nice goose egg zero in the ERA column for the day.

Now here's my question.  Doesn't it seem a bit unfair that the starter gets charged with all those runs, and the reliever walks away with nothing more than a hit added to his WHIP?  This is where baseball needs to introduce a new stat.

The stat that needs to be established needs to incorporate inherited runers, and charge the reliever responsible for allowing those runners to score.  An inherited  runner is a man on base that the new pitcher did not put there, hence the term inherited runner.

I do not consider myself a statistician, so I am not going to attempt to create this statistic.  I am simply proposing the idea that such a statistic needs to exist.  As of now, it is simply a causality to this great game, where a reliever can allow up to 3 runs, and not be charged with any of them being earned, and that needs to change.

Because no such stat exists, relievers have the chance to be overpaid because their ERA does not appropriately reflect runs allowed from runners who were on base prior to the reliever taking the mound.

I also believe ERA needs to be adjusted for starters who exit the game with runners on base, and have no impact on whether or not they will score.

My suggestion for this inherited runner statistic is some sort of formula to take into account how many runners are on base, what base the runners are on (if a reliever allows a runner on 1B to score, it should have a greater impact than a runner on 3B scoring), and how many outs the reliever needed to finish the inning.

This stat will certainly help value pitchers better, and will help managers determine who to bring in during certain game situations.  I do not want to point out names, but I have certainly seen my fair share of pitchers who would be greatly affected by this proposed statistic.

If you are a statistician, or someone who knows statistics, I would love to help create this stat but I can not do it on my own.

Baseball is an incredible sport, and America's past time, but still has so perfecting to do.

In what became the biggest trade at the trading deadline, the Colorado Rockies traded their ace pitcher 27 year old Ubaldo Jimenez to the Cleveland Indians for four prospects, two being highly ranked pitching prospects.

The Rockies fell out of contention after a hot start to the season. The Indians, who I don't think were given a chance to be a playoff team this year started the season off hot and have maintained pace in the AL Central although they are two games out of first place behind the Detroit Tigers currently.

The Indians have surprised many people with their great play through the first four months of the season. Now that they are out of first place, which they were in for a majority of the first three and a half months of the season, they needed a front line starter to solidify their rotation. Now they got one in Ubaldo Jimenez.

In the deal for Jimenez, the Indians did give up a hefty package of prospects; including pitchers Alex White and Drew Pomeranz. In the deal, Colorado also got back pitcher Joe Gardner and utility man Matt McBride. White was rated the 47th best prospect entering 2011 according to Baseball America and Pomeranz the 61st best prospect.

McBride was having a solid season at AA Akron with a line of .297/.359/.535 and 14 HR's, which got him a promotion to AAA Columbus where he has started off very slow in 12 games so far.

Gardner isn't having as good season so far in AA Akron where he is sporting a 7-8 record and a 4.99 ERA.  He has 60 strikeouts and 47 walks in 97.1 innings. His 1.59 WHIP is also extremely high.

The Indians made this deal so they have Jimenez for two more years after this year and so they can have a legit ace to help them get to the playoffs and win the AL Central division. A 1-2 punch of Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson isn't bad for a young upstart team chasing a playoff spot.

Many people say, "why would the Rockies trade Jimenez who is still under control through next year with a $5.75 million club option for 2013 and $8 million club option for 2014?". Well Jimenez had a Cy Young caliber 2010 season going 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA striking out 214 batters to go along with a 1.15 WHIP. He finished third in Cy Young voting.

This season he is 6-9 with 4.46 ERA with 118 K's in 123 innings and a 1.37 WHIP. He has lost 3 MPH off his fastball and he has been more wild. There are concerns there is something wrong with his arm but nothing has come up this season. People think he was just a one year wonder and is falling apart at a young age and don't know how a 27 year old pitcher can lose 3 MPH off his fastball.

Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd was smart to pull the trigger on the deal with the Indians as he gets back four prospects and two big ones that can replenish there system and be future top of the rotation starters for them. Alex White and Drew Pomeranz project to be top of the rotation starters and possible sure fire #1's.

Pomeranz has shown to be a strikeout machine in the minors posting 11.1 K's per 9 innings in high A ball and 10.9 K's in AA ball. Alex White is a ground ball pitcher averaging 10.6 K's/9 in 4 starts for Columbus. For the Rockies to get these two pitching prospects means a lot because now they get rid of possible damaged goods in Ubaldo Jimenez and get two top flight prospects back and two other solid minor pieces for the future.

With Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez anchoring the offense in the major league level and no big named pitchers on the Rockies staff, they will have two possible future aces join the staff in 2012 along with injured Jorge De La Rosa.

Barring any injuries, both White and Pomeranz should be at the major league level together by opening day 2013. White is already up in the majors and Pomeranz recently was promoted to AA. Gardner is projected to possibly be a solid bullpen guy come in the future and by the way McBride is hitting in the minors, he could maybe make a splash in the majors not too long from now.

The Indians simply made this deal to show the fans they are committed to winning this year and in the coming years. It's a risky move by Cleveland to trade for a guy who has lost 3 mph off his fastball and give up four prospects with two being top 75 pitching prospects. It's a solid trade by Colorado as they get really solid pieces for the future for a guy who may be breaking down at a young age.

If everything pans out well for the Rockies, they will have made a great trade when they look back on this in a few years. Great trade for Colorado it looks to me and we will have to wait and see how Ubaldo adjusts to a new league,division and batters to see if Cleveland also made a good deal. It's a deal both teams, to me, had to make.